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2011: An Election Year for Ban Ki Moon

Happy New Year, everyone!  We wish you a happy and healthy year.  2011 is also a big year for the top man at the United Nations.

Ban Ki Moon’s first five year term concludes at the end of 2011. He is eligible for one more term.  While Ban’s appointment requires a vote of approval from both the 15 member Security Council and 198 member General Assembly, all he really has to do to secure re-appointment is stay in favor with the five permanent members of the Council. Any one of the P-5 for any reason (or no reason) can block his appointment. But would they? It is hard to tell this early, but throughout 2011 do watch for statements/signals/signs from the P-5 to see which way members are leaning.

In the meantime, Ban kicks off 2011 with a syndicated op-ed on the enduring value and utility of the UN.  It contains this nugget on how the UN and G-20 can productively work together.

Nevertheless, on climate change, poverty, and other issues, the conventional wisdom is that the UN should cede responsibility to the G-20.

But the G-20, by itself, is not the answer. Despite strenuous debate about currency issues and trade imbalances at its summit in Seoul in November, the sole area of agreement concerned an issue on the G-20’s agenda for the first time – economic development. Recognizing that global recovery depends on the emerging economies – that is, the developing world – G-20 leaders embraced investments aimed at lifting the world’s most vulnerable people out of poverty.

That is why G-20 leaders accept the need to work closely with the UN – after all, no organization does development better. The G-20 and the UN are finding new ways to work constructively together – not as rivals, but as increasingly close partners. And that is the way it should be.

Read the whole thing. And happy 2011!


  • Lawyer

    I predict Ban will easily win reelection. As a South Korean technocrat, he is politically palatable to the US, unlike career UN insider Kofi Annan, who dared to rock the boat over Iraq. As an east Asian, he is probably the best candidate that China can hope for, unless a dark horse emerges from Singapore. And, he has not done anything to terribly piss off France, Russia, or the UK. The more important question is, of course, about legacy as all lame ducks begin to feel the need to leave a lasting contribution and, with the relative freedom from running for another term, the opportunity to actually do it. Annan’s positive legacy may be the nearly universal acceptance of the MDG’s as the agenda for development, but Iraq remains a sore point (I ignore Israel/Palestine because that issue predates even the UN itself). Whether Ban’s legacy lies in achieving MDG benchmarks or a comprehensive climate change agreement remains to be seen.

    • Anonymous

      Smart comment, Lawyer. One thing I’ve wondered is whether or not the Russians woulddecide to make a big deal about Kosovo independence, and maybe use that to block BKM. It is probably out of the realm of probable, but you never know…

      • Lawyer

        Thanks. About Ban, Russia, and Kosovo, I didn’t think it was an issue because the status quo (UNMIK) is nominally still in effect and Kosovo hasn’t been admitted as a member state yet. I think Russia will be forced to take Serbia’s lead on this and so far Serbia’s more concerned with winning EU cash than with UNMIK brinkmanship. I was actually more worried about Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and the Gazprom “gas war” because obviously Russia had much greater power projection over those issues.

        As for non-P5 opposition, the only ones I can think of are Iran, North Korea, and the banana republics being investigated by the ICC – none of which could seriously command a consensus against Ban.

        Within the US, I think Ban’s only major threat would be if Tea Party Republicans rip off Jesse Helms’ playbook and somehow try to “get” Ban over something innocuous he says about gun control, climate change, Islam, or economic rights.

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