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Since 1999, Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations as a semi-autonomous trustee state. Kosovo's "final status" -- independence from Serbia, integration into Serbia, or something in between -- has been one of the most vexing issues facing international diplomacy. On one side are ethnic Albanian Kosovars, who recently elected a prime minister running on the promise to bring independence to Kosovo. The United States and many European countries also support Kosovo's independence. On the other side are Kosovo's ethnic Serb minority population -- which largely boycotted the election, -- the Serbian government in Belgrade, and the Russians.
Accordingly, progress on Kosovo's final status is stalled. Last March, a compromise plan was put forward in which Kosovo would be granted independence, but under close international supervision and with robust protections for the ethnic-Serb minority. When that plan was sent to the Security Council, it was largely rejected by Russia, which asked for more time for negotiation. Today may very well be the last day of negotiations--and the Security Council is as deadlocked as ever.
What can we expect to happen? Last month, I asked United States Institute of Peace scholar Daniel Serwer. This is what he had to say.