Security Council to Discuss Abkhazia and South Ossetia Today
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Tensions are mounting between Russia and Georgia. Last week, Georgia accused Russia of shooting down an unmanned spy drone over Abkhazia -- a Georgian province with a large separatist movement backed by Russia. Georgia even released a video of the incident, which they say proves Russian MIGs violated Georgian airspace.

The Security Council will take up the matter today, but don't expect too much to come out of the closed-door meeting. Russia's increased activity in Abkhazia and South Ossetia follows predictably from the western decision to back Kosovo's independence. This is merely the other shoe dropping. I doubt shooting down an unmanned spy drone is all Russia has in store for the region.

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October 10, 2008


A U.S.-UN History Lesson in Georgia
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(The following was originally written in August 2008.)

Commentators looking to explain the recent Russo-Georgian conflict by analyzing American foreign policy have found no dearth of candidate provocations. America's support for Georgian membership in NATO, its recognition of Kosovo's independence, and its open planning to install missile defense programs in Eastern Europe all likely contributed to Russia's willingness to exert its influence in the region by force. By and large, however, these speculations have focused on the proximate causes of the past few months. The most significant American contribution to instability in Georgia, however, may actually have occurred some 15 years ago--and its story provides more resounding lessons for U.S.-UN policy than it does for U.S.-Russia relations.

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