Bad News on World Economic Health
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The United Nations released its semi-annual World Economic Situation and Prospects Report. The prospects are not so good. From the UN News Center

The deepening credit crisis in affluent countries triggered by the continuing housing slump, the declining value of the United States dollar, persisting global imbalances and soaring oil and commodity prices pose major threats to economic growth around the world, according to a report released today by United Nations economists.

[snip]

Today's report, issued by the UN's Department of Social and Economic Affairs (DESA), predicts that world economic growth will fall steeply to 1.8 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year, down from 3.8 per cent in 2007.

The report says that much depends on developments in the US, which remains the prime driver of the global economy, and where a crashing housing market and finance and credit weaknesses set off the global downturn.

A worst-case scenario would see the "world economy come to a virtual standstill" if recent financial measures in the US fail to turn the economy around, and house prices continue to fall, blending with a severe tightening on credit.

Read more. And for readers interested in learning more about the mortgage crisis, I fully recommend checking out last week's episode of This American Life from Chicago Public Radio.

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October 10, 2008


A U.S.-UN History Lesson in Georgia
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(The following was originally written in August 2008.)

Commentators looking to explain the recent Russo-Georgian conflict by analyzing American foreign policy have found no dearth of candidate provocations. America's support for Georgian membership in NATO, its recognition of Kosovo's independence, and its open planning to install missile defense programs in Eastern Europe all likely contributed to Russia's willingness to exert its influence in the region by force. By and large, however, these speculations have focused on the proximate causes of the past few months. The most significant American contribution to instability in Georgia, however, may actually have occurred some 15 years ago--and its story provides more resounding lessons for U.S.-UN policy than it does for U.S.-Russia relations.

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