Morning Coffee - 20 October 2009

Welcome to Morning Coffee, brought to you by Lindsay Beyerstein with additional links from the UN Dispatch team. Every morning we survey foreign affairs and foreign policy news so you don't have to. We begin with the "Starting Five" items of the day -- these may not always appear on A-1, but they *are* the kinds of stories that will be buzzing in foreign capitals, the UN and wherever foreign policy minds roam.
Starting Five
KARZAI SAID TO ACCEPT RUNOFF - Reports indicate Incumbent Afghan president Hamid Karzai will accept the UN election monitor's verdict that he received less than 50% of the vote in August's election. Since Karzai received less than an absolute majority, he will face first runner up Dr. Abdullah Abdullah in a run-off election. Karzai had publicly grumbled that the UN was using an invalid formula to calculate the true vote total, which was plagued by massive fraud. Link
MALDIVES HOLDS UNDERWATER CABINET MEETING - Ministers in the Maldives held a cabinet meeting at a table bolted to the floor of the Indian Ocean to highlight the threat of global warming. Rising sea levels threaten to swallow their tiny island nation, which is only a few meters above sea level. The agenda?...Signing a document calling on all nations to reduce their carbon emissions. Link
CHOPPER DOWN - Drug gangs shot down a police helicopter in Brazil. In response, the authorities dispatched 4,500 heavily armed officers into the slums of Rio to do battle with the gangs. Brazil has been gripped by a savage drug war between gangs and the state. This latest surge of violence raises questions about whether Rio will be secure enough to host the Olympics in 2016. Link
NEW SUDAN PLAN - Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has unveiled a new plan for dealing with human rights in Sudan. The new policy includes both incentives and penalties for the pariah regime of Omar al-Bashir. Clinton called on Bashir to halt war crimes in Darfur and to negotiate a peace deal between the northern and southern halves of the country. The new strategy is the fruit of a recent review of U.S. policy in Sudan. Link
ANOTHER SWINE MESS - Agriculture officials say they've found the H1N1 virus in a pig in the United States. Pig Zero was a show pig at the Minnesota State Fair. Show pigs are isolated from farm pigs, but authorities expect swine flu to spread to the general agricultural swine population this year. U.S. officials are reportedly scrambling to reassure trading partners that the dreaded swine flu cannot be spread by eating pork products. Link
Provocateurs
Steve Coll in THE NEW YORKER
"Over the summer, the Afghan Taliban’s military committee distributed “A Book of Rules,” in Pashto, to its fighters. The book’s eleven chapters seem to draw from the population-centric principles of F.M. 3-24, the U.S. Army’s much publicized counter-insurgency field manual, released in 2006. Henceforth, the Taliban guide declares, suicide bombers must take “the utmost steps . . . to avoid civilian human loss.” Commanders should generally insure the “safety and security of the civilian’s life and property.” Also, lest anxious Afghan parents get the wrong idea, Taliban guerrillas should avoid hanging around with beardless young boys and should particularly refrain from “keeping them in camps.” "
in NUKES AND SPOOKS
"We're in the midst of the biggest political crisis in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001. Pakistan has launched a major offensive into the South Waziristan tribal area, a move that was preceded by a string of murderous terrorist attacks against Pakistani security forces. U.S.-Pakistani relations almost went thermonuclear over a U.S. aid bill that Pakistani military saw as a hammer against it. Where then is Richard C. Holbrooke, the president's Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan? "
Glenn Greenwald in SALON
"The debate over Afghanistan -- or, more accurately, the multi-pronged effort to pressure Obama into escalating -- is looking increasingly familiar, i.e., like the "debate" over Iraq. The New York Times ispublishing articles filled with quotes from anonymous war advocates. Permanent war-justifier Michael O'Hanlon is regularly featured in "news accounts" as he all butblames Obama for increasing combat deaths due to his failure to escalate the moment the military demanded it. "
Water Cooler

The CIA and the Director of National Intelligence are locked in a turf battle over the right to name top U.S. intelligence officers in foreign countries. CIA director Leon Panetta asserts the privilege as does his nominal boss, DNI Dennis Blair. The fight has been simmering for five months. Even Vice President Joe Biden is at a loss to resolve this high-level spy squabble.

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