An “AIDS Free Generation” is not some pie-in-the-sky dream. It is an achievable goal that is not terribly complex to achieve. What we need to do is make sure that pregnant mothers in HIV endemic countries are tested; and if they test positive, adhere to a series of medicines that virtually eliminates their chances of passing HIV to their child.
Swaziland is doing to a good job on this front, and is on its way to sharply reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. From UNICEF.
One of the more hotly debated questions in international justice is whether or not the International Criminal Court has any sort of deterrent effect; that is, does the mere presence of the ICC or threat of ICC action deter would be war criminals from unleashing violence?
This is a difficult proposition to prove because it is hard to demonstrate any sort of counter-factual based on events that did not happen. But proponents of the ICC — and I count myself among them — tend to find evidence where we can.
Enter the generally peaceful outcome of Kenya’s tense election season, where fear of prosecution helped keep a lid on violence. To be sure, there was some rioting yesterday by supporters of the defeated candidate. But it was no where near the scale of the 2007/8 violence which lead to the ICC inquiry and 6 indictments.
So, does the relative calm and lack of violence in the wake of Kenya’s hotly disputed election evidence of the ICC’s deterrent effect? Jeffrey Gettleman:
There are a few crucial reasons there were far fewer stories this time around like Mr. Mwangi’s [a shop owner whose store was destroyed in the 2007/8 violence.]. First, Mr. Odinga and other politicians urged their followers to stay calm and accept the decision of the Supreme Court; in 2007 and 2008, before the courts were overhauled and people had more faith in them, Mr. Odinga had called for protests.
Second, protests were outlawed during this election period, and armies of police officers were pre-emptively deployed to stomp out any dissent.
Third, most Kenyans have been extremely fearful of returning to the frightening days of 2007 and early 2008 when the country essentially shut down and Kenyans of all ethnic groups and socioeconomic classes suffered.
“People are angry about the court’s decision, no doubt,” said one Luo man in Kisumu who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he feared for his safety. “But everybody just wants to move on.”
And fourth, there is the International Criminal Court hanging over Kenya like a thick, black cloud. Both Mr. Kenyatta and his running mate, William Ruto, have been charged with crimes against humanity, accused of organizing some of the violence during the last election period. They are scheduled to stand trial soon. Many Kenyans said this has served as a brake, making politicians of all stripes fearful of inciting any violence and then being hauled away.
I think it is fair to say the ICC was a contributing factor. Politicians saw many of their colleagues wrapped up in legal cases and under indictment–including even the leading candidate for president. That powerfully demonstrated to the political class that being an elite is no guarantee of immunity from international justice. The ICC can’t be “worked” as easily as the local criminal justice system precisely because it is separate from the political institutions as Kenya.
It would be difficult to speculate on how much the ICC contributed to deterring election related violence. But I think it is indisputable that it was a force for restraint.
Top stories from DAWNS Digest
Kenyan Elections: Some Fighting, But General Calm Following Court Ruling
The Kenyan Supreme Court issued its final verdict, certifying Uhuru Kenyatta as Kenya’s next president. He is set to take office next month, and in July his trial for crimes against humanity is set to commence in the Hague. Challenger Raila Odinga accepted the results of the court ruling, but violence and rioting among his supporters claimed at least five lives. (AFP http://bit.ly/Ypf7DD)
Heavy Fighting Erupts in Timbuktu
Order is very, very far from being restored in northern Mali. Malian soldiers backed by French fighter jets battled Islamist rebels in Timbuktu on Sunday after insurgents used a car bomb as cover to infiltrate the northern desert town, sources said…The attack reflected the challenge of securing Mali as France prepares to reduce its troop presence and hand over to the ill-equipped Malian army and a more than 7,000-strong regional African force. (Reuters http://reut.rs/ZvvsCd)
This is very much a children’s crisis.
I know I keep beating this drum, but it is worth beating because so very little of our public conversation about Syria focuses on the plight of Syrian refugees and internally displaced. This is also the one population that we can relatively easily serve and protect — if we just had the money to do so.
Groups like UNICEF and the World Food Program a stand at the ready to provide life saving assistance to Syrians caught in conflict, but they do not have enough money to fully fund their humanitarian response. It is a matter of needing cash on hand to buy and deliver food, medicine, tents and the like. But so far, only 20% of the $1.2 billion pledged to support humanitarian efforts has been received. That’s pathetic. We can — and must — do better.
Top stories from DAWNS Digest
Final Arms Trade Treaty Text Hits Last Minute Snag. But Will Be Adopted Very Soon!
An unholy alliance of North Korea, Iran and Syria blocked universal consensus on the final draft text of the Arms Trade Treaty, so the text will go to a vote at the UN General Assembly next week where it is expected to be overwhelmingly approved. “Today is not success, it is success deferred, and deferred for not very long,” said the UK representative to the treaty negotiations. (Reuters
Looting Hits Humanitarian Agencies in CAR
“The warehouses of the U.N. World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organisation in Bangui were not raided, she added. But some stocks have been looted from the warehouse of the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the offices and facilities of many other aid agencies have been pillaged, and vehicles stolen. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said its supplies and staff residences had suffered looting, and called for it to cease.” (AlertNet http://bit.ly/YhXMMX)
OCHA Report: Humanitarianism in the Networked Age
A fascinating new report takes a look at how social media is informing (or not!) humanitarian relief operations. “The report imagines how a world of increasingly informed, connected and self-reliant communities will affect the delivery of humanitarian aid. Its conclusions suggest a fundamental shift in power from capitals and headquarters to the people aid agencies aim to assist…It calls for more diverse and bottom-up forms of decision-making—something that most Governments and humanitarian organizations were not designed for…This report focuses on organizations that are embracing these changes and reorienting their approaches around the essential objective of helping people to help themselves.” (OCHA http://bit.ly/16kX9ns)
Amidst upheaval in the Central African Republic, John Ging, the deputy chief of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, summed up the UN’s deep fears for the country in one sentence. “This is a region with very little absorptive capacity,” he told the UN press corps today.
It is worth unpacking that sentence to understand just why humanitarians are watching the situation in CAR so closely. With the exception of Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville, CAR is surrounded by deeply unstable countries with exceptionally weak governments.
Deeper still, this is a region beset by humanitarian crises. The Central African Republic is one of 17 countries for which the United Nations has launched a consolidated appeal for humanitarian assistance from donor countries. Humanitarian groups like the World Food Program and Unicef need $129 million to feed, shelter and provide medicine to populations displaced by conflict and hunger. So far, only $23 million has been pledged to these humanitarian programs.
Should this coup lead to further instability — and if the looting in Bangui is a harbinger of things to come — many more people will be in need of humanitarian assistance. The CAR and those surrounding countries, though, don’t have the capacity to handle this influx; and the humanitarian community did not even have the money to handle the situation before the coup. If things get worse, there is very little that can be done to help people with emergent needs.
This is what Ging meant by the regions poor “absorptive capacity.” And this is why the UN is so worried about the unfolding crisis in the CAR.
The SC: The Security Council today held its last consultations under the Council Presidency of ROK. Tomorrow, Russia will take over the rotating Presidency of the Security Council for March under Ambassador Vitaly Churkin.
The SG: At the Fifth Global Forum of the UN Alliance of Civilizations in Vienna, Austria today, the SG emphasized the role of youth in ensuring a “prosperous, equitable and peaceful future.”
The SG: In Ethiopia over the weekend, the SG is now in the United Arab Emirates. Today he met with Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashed Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, where the two discussed developments in the region, including Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan, and in the Middle East Peace Process.
