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Should ECOWAS Invade Cote D’Ivoire?

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December 28, 2010

Mark Leon Goldberg

Security | ,

Leaders from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) arrived in Abudja,  Cote D’Ivoire today to issue Laurent Gbagbo an ultimatum: Step aside or be forced out.  The implied threat here is of some sort of military intervention, lead by the regional power Nigeria, that would forcibly remove Gbagbo.

I’m not entirely sure how credible this prospect. For one, such an intervention would presumably have to be sanctioned by the Security Council, and I am not entirely sure that all five of the permanent members would be on board.  Even if the council does approve a Nigerian-led multi-national force to invade and occupy Cote D’Ivoire, what would the chances of success look like?  They would probably have to shoot their way into hostile territory; Gbagbo controls the army, and has the support of at least 35% of the population.

Something similar unfolded in the late 1990s in Sierra Leone to miserable effect. In 1998 a Nigerian led ECOWAS force, with UN support, booted rebels from the capital Freetown and re-installed the rightful president. As the international community negotiated the replacement of ECOWAS with a proper UN Peacekeeping force, the rebels regrouped and gained control of half the country (and fomented conflict in neighboring countries, like Liberia).  UN peacekeepers were outgunned, out manned, and unable to enforce a peace. The rebels were not routed until 2002, when the United Kingdom sent a contingent of special forces to the country.

The lesson here is that these types of invasions can have some untended and unforeseen consequences. While ECOWAS deserves international support for putting up a unified front in support of democracy in Cote D’Ivoire, we ought to be thinking of other creative ways to pressure the Gbagbo camp.  Hopefully, Gbagbo will respond favorably to the entreaties of the West African leaders with whom he is meeting today.  If not, the international community should be prepared to move to Plan B. I’m not sure what that is, but I am not yet convinced that it ought to include the invasion of Cote D’Ivoire.


  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the comment. The only point I was trying to make was that these kinds of interventions have a number of unforeseen consequences.

    • Elisha

      I just read an article written by Ade Jones, a Sierra Leonean journalist. In the article, entitled “Between Nigeria and Sierra Leone”, he quotes a statement made by the current Sierra Leonean Ambassador to Nigeria, Olufemi Macauley. According to Macauley, “Nigeria was there (in Sierra Leone), before anybody came, and stayed after everybody left”. Today, Nigeria banks and members of the Nigeria funded Technical Aids Scheme are contributing their quota to making Sierra Leone a virile, viable and valuable member of the comity of nations. I believe that this is a very important point that many Western commentators on the Sierra Leonean civil war and its aftermath have consistently overlooked.

      • Anonymous

        Thanks for sending the article selection. I don’t mean to diminish the important role that Nigeria played in helping to pacify the situation in Sierra Leone in the late 1990s. As you note, that intervention did set into motion a chain of events that eventually lead to Sierra Leone becoming a beacon of regional stability. Nigeria also deserves credit for being a largely constructive player in the region. It uses its regional clout to generally positive ends.

  • Nila

    I agree with the article. There are probably lots of unforeseen consequences. I am right now in Abidjan. I think all possible means of creative ways to put pressure on him has failed. All international community, UN ECOWAS France etc must have analysed these consequences and I believe that they will again do it before using force. Almost 3 weeks have passed in the analysis. I agree with you that victory will not be easy for invading forces and the way it has been translated here in Abidjan, there might be a lot of civilian casualty.

  • thomas

    No. Gbagbo is the elected president of Ivory Cost under the law and the Ivory Cost constitution.

    It’s very unfortunate many journalists are well contended of only repeating what they read in international news agency instead of doing investigative journalism and make their own mind.

    Here’s an African Union observers mission document relating the atrocities committed during the election in the region occupied by the armed rebellion.

    http://documents.fileave.com/UA%20observer%20mission%20in%20Ivory%20Coast.pdf

    Among other thing it mentions:
    “The LMP [Gbagbo's party] representatives were thus unable to participate in any polling process in the district of Korhogo (town and administrative subdivision)”

    “It is a fact that in the entire district of Korhogo, serious cases of murders, death threats,intimidation, confinement and physical assaults were perpetrated against the LMP activists and representatives by the New Forces and the RDR activists.”

    “For example, one of the LMP supervisors, Mrs. Coulibaly Sita, was savagely beaten then illegally detained before being murdered after denouncing the irregularities she recorded during the polling process in her area of duty.”

    “Another sad example, Mrs. Traore Kady, LMP supervisor, was denuded, savagely beaten, publicly dragged off then jailed. She was evacuated to the hospital where she is currently receiving care (Picture of Mrs. Traore Khady). ”

    Those are only short extracts. I urge people to read the whole documents (and other observers mission reports).

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