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The Illogic of a No-Fly Zone for Libya

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March 9, 2011

Mark Leon Goldberg

Security | ,

One thing to watch in the evolving no-fly zone debate is how the Arab League and African Union approach the question.  That’s because unless a no-fly zone receives their backing, it would be next to impossible to expect the Security Council to support it.

In the meantime, no one seems to be questioning the logic of a no-fly zone for Libya. It is pretty much assumed the a no-fly zone would help.

I don’t quite see how.

Even if effectively enforced, all a no-fly zone could do is prevent Libyan jet fighters from strafing rebel positions. It would not stop tanks from firing on city squares, or mercenaries from opening fire on demonstrators with their Kalashnikovs. Apparently, it could not even prevent helicopters from launching attacks.

No-fly zones don’t have great track records as a form of humanitarian intervention. A no-fly zone over Bosnia did not stop the Serbs from shelling Sarejevo. It did not stop Srebrenica from happening.  The expulsion of Kosovar Albanians actually accelerated while there was an effective no-fly zone over Kosovo.

What proponents of a no-fly zone think will be different this time around?

The point is, as I have been saying over and over again, if stopping Qaddafi from massacring his people is your primary objective, a no-fly zone is a fig leaf of a response.  So far, most of the human rights abuses have occurred on the ground. Not by air. A no fly zone will do little to stop Qaddafi loyalists from attacking their opponents using the other means and it is not strong enough to actually dislodge Qaddafi from power.

If the point of a no-fly zone is to level the playing field so that the rebels can more easily defeat Qaddafi loyalists, a no fly zone still makes little sense.  Wouldn’t a lower cost way of going about that simply be launching missile attacks on loyalist military targets? Or, as John Kerry put it “crater” their airfields?

I understand the allure of a no-fly zone. It has the appearance of decisive military intervention with out the apparent costs. But if military intervention is what is called for (and I am still unconvinced) it would make more sense to do so in a way that would be decisive.

A no fly zone carries all the political risks of military intervention, but without the intended benefits.

Can someone convince me otherwise?


  • Amit Agarwal

    The talks of a no-fly zone (NFZ) are intented to trigger mass desertion in Gaddafi’s camp. Its a political non-starter. One Q: How would an enforcement of an NFZ still allow Libyan helicopters to carry out their mission?

  • Echjorth

    Översättning från svenska till engelska
    First, how many Iraqis had the courage to want to dismiss S Hussein and how many asked for a no-fly zone? Libyan freedom fighters have asked for a flight free zone for a long time. Apples and Pears?
    Second, without having been there, I believe that the topography is different, relieve themselves on the ground while keeping an eye on the air, there must be a clear disadvantage in an open landscapes
    Thirdly, the psychological effect should not be underestimated, all that strikes at the Gaddafi’s ego is a victory for those who want to free Libya.
    Fourth, if we find ourselves outside of Libya and not doing everything we can to support freedom fighters shows an arrogance and ignorance that will affect our, my and your, life.
    Fifth, suppose you buy an extremely expensive machine, and to manage it, you need a specialist. The days you want to use it, you get the answer that it is very complicated and to use it, the whole world has to give you permission to use it. Wasted money and perhaps money could be invested better, such as education
    Sixth, it is obvious that you choose who you want to listen to, for some, there are only obstacles and other barriers are there to be solved. You choose if you want to be part of the problem or the solution.
    Seventh, As a mother I can not see how Gaddafi get carte blanche to eradicate Libya and brainwash them just because they want freedom, democracy and feel proud to be a thinking human being, the question is how will a father react and act

  • Jacob AG

    “A no fly zone carries all the political risks of military intervention, but without the intended benefits. Can someone convince me otherwise?”

    The idea of a no-fly zone is probably more politically acceptable than the idea of a more comprehensive military intervention, even if a no-fly zone ultimately leads to a more “decisive” intervention.

    A no-fly zone might just be the foot in the door we need before actually stepping into the elevator. I hear a lot of people say a no-fly zone is just the first step on the long road to war. Like you, of course, I’m not convinced that war is the right way to go (actually I’m rather skeptical), but for those who want a full-scale intervention but don’t want to sell it, a no-fly zone is a politically convenient idea. It’s a foot in the door.

  • captaingrumpy

    I think everyone should stay out of Lybia and let it take its course.
    What would have happened if Russia had stepped in when American forces were fighting the British?????? America as you know it would not be. Let the world change and stop trying to be everything to everybody.

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